Ponte Preta 2–1 Figueirense: Result & Stats

Ponte Preta

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Figueirense

Apodi 76'

Guilherme Pato 71'

Éverton Santos 35'

11/2/2020

Serie B · Round 19Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ponte Preta44%

×Draw28%

Figueirense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchFigueirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

Ponte Preta

1.29

Figueirense

0.96

Ponte Preta creates 34% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 46 away

1.18

creates per match

0.91

1.01

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.18

Figueirense

0.91

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.01

Figueirense

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Figueirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

72%

Ponte Preta or Figueirense

72%

Draw or Figueirense

56%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

20%

Figueirense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

72%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

37%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

14%

Figueirense 1+ goals

62%

Figueirense 2+ goals

25%

Figueirense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

61%

Figueirense (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.18 + Figueirense defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Figueirense attack 0.91 + Ponte Preta defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

44%

level

28%

Figueirense scores more

28%

Ponte Preta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Bruno Rodrigues

Ponte Preta · M

8.2

Match Events

32'

33'

35'

40'

43'

Diego Gonçalves← Marquinho

46'

Camilo← Leonardo Pereira

63'

Apodi

64'

Guilherme Pato← Barreto

64'

Tiago Orobó← Matheus Peixoto

71'

Guilherme Pato↳ Bruno Rodrigues

76'

Apodi

77'

Lucas Barcelos← Bruno Michel

77'

F. Micolta← Dudu

77'

Arouca← Matheus Neris

82'

Índio← João Paulo

90+3'

Osman← Bruno Rodrigues

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonteFigueirense

Overview

66%Possession34%

14Total Shots4

2Corners1

16Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots4

6On Target4

7Off Target0

1Blocked0

9Inside Box1

5Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

577Total Passes289

505Accurate Passes212

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0