Figueirense 2–7 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

Figueirense

FT

2 – 7

HT: 1 – 4

Ponte Preta

Nonato 56'

Erison 28'

Camilo 88' (pen), 6'

Moises 76', 33', 16'

Ernandes 67'

Tiago Orobó 22'

1/29/2021

Serie B · Round 38Estádio Orlando Scarpelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Figueirense42%

×Draw28%

Ponte Preta30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.03

Figueirense

1.27

Ponte Preta

1.03

Figueirense creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 115 away

1.19

creates per match

0.84

1.22

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Figueirense

1.19

Ponte Preta

0.84

allows per match

Figueirense

1.22

Ponte Preta

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

70%

Figueirense or Ponte Preta

72%

Draw or Ponte Preta

58%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

19%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

72%

Figueirense 2+ goals

36%

Figueirense 3+ goals

14%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

64%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

28%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

58%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.34 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.19 + Ponte Preta defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ponte Preta attack 0.84 + Figueirense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Figueirense scores more

42%

level

28%

Ponte Preta scores more

30%

Figueirense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Figueirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Camilo

Ponte Preta · M

9.7

Match Events

6'

Camilo↳ Leonardo Pereira

12'

Victor Oliveira

16'

Moises↳ Guilherme Pato

22'

Tiago Orobó↳ Camilo

28'

Erison↳ Éverton Santos

33'

Moises

39'

Jhonatan← Dudu

39'

Bruno Michel← Diego Gonçalves

46'

Vitor Caetano← Rodolfo

46'

Pedrinho← Guilherme Pato

56'

Nonato↳ Bruno Michel

62'

P. Faye← Tiago Orobó

62'

Leo← Igor Maduro

66'

Ernandes

67'

Ernandes↳ Camilo

69'

DaviKuhn← Matheus Neris

72'

Jean Carlos← Ernandes

76'

Moises

82'

Thiago Lopes← Rayan

88'

CamiloPenalty

90'

Raimundo Nonato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FigueirensePonte

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots16

3Corners4

21Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target9

6Off Target6

1Blocked1

4Inside Box10

6Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

411Total Passes616

364Accurate Passes557

89%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Serie B: Figueirense 2–7 Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta beat Figueirense 7-2 in Serie B on January 29, 2021.

Goals: Camilo (6', 88' pen), Moises (16', 33', 76'), Tiago Orobó (22'), Erison (28'), Nonato (56'), Ernandes (67').

Ponte Preta controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Orlando Scarpelli in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Figueirense vs Ponte Preta — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Figueirense 2–7 Ponte Preta