Ponte Preta 0–2 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ponte Preta

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

CSA

Rodrigo Rodrigues 44', 1'

10/21/2022

Serie B · Round 36Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Ponte Preta40%

×Draw30%

CSA30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.95

Ponte Preta

1.14

CSA

0.95

Ponte Preta creates 20% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 67 away

1.18

creates per match

0.88

1.01

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.18

CSA

0.88

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.01

CSA

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

70%

Ponte Preta or CSA

70%

Draw or CSA

60%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

17%

CSA wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

68%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

32%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

11%

CSA 1+ goals

61%

CSA 2+ goals

25%

CSA 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

57%

CSA (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

CSA away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.18 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

CSA attack 0.88 + Ponte Preta defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

40%

level

30%

CSA scores more

30%

Ponte Preta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Rodrigo Rodrigues

CSA · F

8.7

Match Events

1'

Rodrigo Rodrigues↳ Osvaldo

9'

Echapora

10'

Artur

43'

Norberto

44'

Rodrigo Rodrigues↳ Lourenço

46'

L. Barcia← Wallisson

46'

Igor Formiga← Norberto Neto

58'

Ferreira← Yann Rolim

60'

Leo Naldi

64'

Cássio Gabriel← Echaporã

65'

Mateus Silva

71'

Eliel Chrystian← Ribamar

72'

Igor Formiga

73'

Felipe Augusto← Lourenço

73'

Luiz Henrique← Osvaldo

76'

80'

81'

84'

86'

William da Silva← Gabriel

86'

Gabriel Tonini← Geovane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonteCSA

Overview

73%Possession27%

24Total Shots10

9Corners1

17Fouls15

Shots

24Total Shots10

3On Target4

14Off Target4

7Blocked2

16Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

73%Possession27%

516Total Passes202

437Accurate Passes131

85%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls15

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3