CSA 0–1 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats | Serie B

CSA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta

Lucca 56'

7/7/2022

Serie B · Round 17Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSA50%

×Draw28%

Ponte Preta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.84

CSA

1.39

Ponte Preta

0.84

CSA creates 65% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 115 away

1.43

creates per match

0.84

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

CSA

1.43

Ponte Preta

0.84

allows per match

CSA

0.84

Ponte Preta

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CSA or draw

77%

CSA or Ponte Preta

72%

Draw or Ponte Preta

50%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

24%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

75%

CSA 2+ goals

40%

CSA 3+ goals

16%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

57%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

21%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

69%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.34 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Ponte Preta defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ponte Preta attack 0.84 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSA scores more

50%

level

28%

Ponte Preta scores more

23%

CSA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Artur

Ponte Preta · M

7.7

Match Events

46'

Bruno Mezenga← Geovane

47'

Thiago Lopes

55'

Danilo Gomes← Fessin

56'

Lucca↳ Nicolas

61'

Didira← Lucas Barcelos

62'

Wesley FragaCard upgrade

64'

Wesley Fraga

65'

Luiz Felipe← Lucca

74'

Igor Formiga← Nicolas

75'

Bernardo← Norberto Neto

76'

Sassá← Giva

83'

Lucas Marques← Igor

83'

Bruno Mota← Yann Rolim

86'

Diego Renan

90+3'

Bernardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSAPonte

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots10

8Corners3

10Fouls20

Shots

15Total Shots10

2On Target3

8Off Target6

5Blocked1

10Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

491Total Passes271

413Accurate Passes194

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

6Offsides1