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Ponte Preta vs ABC — Serie B 2026

Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ABC
ABC
6/6/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 11Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ponte Preta48%
×Draw28%
ABC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta
1.35
ABC
0.85

Ponte Preta creates 59% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 23 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta
1.18
ABC
0.70

allows per match

Ponte Preta
1.01
ABC
1.52

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw
76%
Ponte Preta or ABC
72%
Draw or ABC
52%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+
23%
ABC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals
74%
Ponte Preta 2+ goals
39%
Ponte Preta 3+ goals
15%
ABC 1+ goals
57%
ABC 2+ goals
21%
ABC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)
67%
ABC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

ABC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.18 + ABC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

ABC attack 0.70 + Ponte Preta defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ponte Preta scores more
48%
level
28%
ABC scores more
24%

Ponte Preta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
SimãoABCABC · G
8.2

Match Events

46'
Weverton← Luiz Felipe
59'
Eliel← Felipe Amaral
60'
Jeh
68'
Simão
75'
Mateus Silva
76'
Luccas Romário← Maycon Douglas
80'
Gustavo Hebling← Júnior Todinho
84'
Dudu← Cássio Gabriel
89'
Wallace
90+1'
Artur

Possession

61%Ponte

Shots

12Ponte

Pass accuracy

54%Ponte

Statistics

PonteABC
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots13
3Corners5
15Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots13
6On Target0
3Off Target7
3Blocked6
7Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
457Total Passes307
371Accurate Passes210
81%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Serie B: Ponte Preta 0–0 ABC

Ponte Preta and ABC drew 0-0 in Serie B on June 6, 2023.

Ponte Preta controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas, São Paulo.