ABC 2–0 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats | Serie B

ABC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta

Paulo Sérgio 90+1'

Ramon 73'

9/30/2023

Serie B · Round 30Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC36%

×Draw31%

Ponte Preta34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.98

ABC

1.02

Ponte Preta

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 115 away

0.70

creates per match

0.84

1.13

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

ABC

0.70

Ponte Preta

0.84

allows per match

ABC

1.13

Ponte Preta

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

ABC or draw

66%

ABC or Ponte Preta

69%

Draw or Ponte Preta

64%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

14%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

64%

ABC 2+ goals

27%

ABC 3+ goals

8%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

62%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

26%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

52%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.34 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Ponte Preta defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ponte Preta attack 0.84 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ABC scores more

36%

level

31%

Ponte Preta scores more

34%

ABC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Ramon

ABC · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

Edson

31'

Fabricio

42'

Anderson← Maycon Douglas

46'

Jhonnathan← Fabrício

46'

Igor Torres← P. Villero

56'

Luiz Felipe

57'

Lucas Nathan← Souza

58'

Thonny Anderson← Matheus Anjos

66'

Weverton← Luiz Felipe

66'

Paulo Baya← Élvis

71'

Paulo Sérgio← Andrey

72'

Daniel Carvalho← Habraão

72'

Maílton← Artur

73'

Ramon↳ Daniel Carvalho

75'

Alemão

78'

Michael

81'

Jhonnathan

90+1'

Paulo Sérgio↳ Thonny Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ABCPonte

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots10

4Corners6

11Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target3

3Off Target5

1Blocked2

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

276Total Passes408

173Accurate Passes302

63%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1