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Ponte Preta U20 vs Guacuano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guacuano U20
Guacuano U20
Unknown 90+3', 56'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ponte Preta U2060%
×Draw22%
Guacuano U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta U20
1.85
Guacuano U20
0.89

Ponte Preta U20 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.91
Guacuano U20
0.60

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.17
Guacuano U20
1.80

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par
Guacuano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Guacuano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw
82%
Ponte Preta U20 or Guacuano U20
78%
Draw or Guacuano U20
40%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
35%
Guacuano U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
84%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
55%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
28%
Guacuano U20 1+ goals
59%
Guacuano U20 2+ goals
22%
Guacuano U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
77%
Guacuano U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Guacuano U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + Guacuano U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Guacuano U20 attack 0.60 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more
60%
level
22%
Guacuano U20 scores more
18%

Ponte Preta U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
90'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponte Preta U20 vs Guacuano U20

Ponte Preta U20 beat Guacuano U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (56', 90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.