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Guacuano U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guacuano U20
Guacuano U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
R. Costa da Cruz 74' (pen)
I. Melo 90+3'
L. Gustavo 60' (OG)
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Carlos Nelson Bueno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guacuano U2034%
×Draw24%
Ponte Preta U2042%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guacuano U20
1.48
Ponte Preta U20
1.68

Ponte Preta U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

Guacuano U20
1.60
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

Guacuano U20
2.00
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

Guacuano U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guacuano U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guacuano U20 or draw
58%
Guacuano U20 or Ponte Preta U20
76%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
66%

Winning margin

Guacuano U20 wins by 2+
16%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Guacuano U20 1+ goals
77%
Guacuano U20 2+ goals
43%
Guacuano U20 3+ goals
19%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
81%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
50%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Guacuano U20 (draw refunded)
44%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guacuano U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guacuano U20 attack 1.60 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + Guacuano U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guacuano U20 scores more
34%
level
24%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
42%

Ponte Preta U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
L. GustavoOwn goal
74'
R. Costa da CruzPenalty
90+3'
I. Melo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guacuano U20 vs Ponte Preta U20

Ponte Preta U20 beat Guacuano U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: L. Gustavo (60' o.g.), R. Costa da Cruz (74' pen), I. Melo (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Carlos Nelson Bueno in Mogi Guaçu, São Paulo.