Ponferradina 1–4 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Ponferradina

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

FC Andorra

Edu Espiau 79'

Carlos Martínez 88' (pen)

S. Bakış 78'

Rubén Bover 28'

Sergio Molina 5'

4/22/2023

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Ponferradina43%

×Draw28%

FC Andorra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.04

Ponferradina

1.32

FC Andorra

1.04

Ponferradina creates 27% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 63 away

1.29

creates per match

1.02

1.07

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.29

FC Andorra

1.02

allows per match

Ponferradina

1.07

FC Andorra

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

71%

Ponferradina or FC Andorra

72%

Draw or FC Andorra

57%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

20%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

73%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

38%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

15%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

65%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

28%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

59%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 84 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.35 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.29 + FC Andorra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Andorra attack 1.02 + Ponferradina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ponferradina scores more

43%

level

28%

FC Andorra scores more

29%

Ponferradina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Carlos Martínez

FC Andorra · F

7.7

Match Events

5'

Sergio Molina↳ C. Albanis

20'

Paris Barandiaran

25'

Eduardo Espiau

28'

Rubén Bover

34'

Sinan BakışGoal cancelled

37'

K. Nwakali← Erik Morán

37'

José Naranjo← Hugo Vallejo

43'

Daniel Ojeda

59'

José Amo

66'

Agus Medina

67'

S. Abdulai← Agus Medina

67'

Moi Delgado← Adrián Castellano

69'

Derik Lacerda

70'

Germán Valera← M. Bundu

70'

H. Hevel← Rubén Bover

73'

José Naranjo

78'

S. Bakış↳ H. Hevel

79'

Edu Espiau↳ Moi Delgado

82'

Naim García← Dani Ojeda

83'

Carlos Martínez← S. Bakış

83'

Dani Morer← Álex Valle

83'

Iván Gil← Sergio Molina

87'

Amir Abedzadeh

88'

Carlos MartínezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonferradinaFC

Overview

27%Possession73%

7Total Shots15

1Corners3

24Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots15

2On Target7

4Off Target4

1Blocked4

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box10

Passing

27%Possession73%

243Total Passes696

175Accurate Passes632

72%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

24Fouls10

7Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2