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FC Andorra vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
9/15/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Andorra47%
×Draw29%
Ponferradina24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.30
Ponferradina
0.84

FC Andorra creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.74
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.74
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
76%
FC Andorra or Ponferradina
71%
Draw or Ponferradina
53%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
22%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
73%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
37%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
14%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
57%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
21%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
66%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.74 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + FC Andorra defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Andorra scores more
47%
level
29%
Ponferradina scores more
24%

FC Andorra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: FC Andorra 1–1 Ponferradina

FC Andorra and Ponferradina drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.