Ponferradina 2–1 Elche: Result & Stats

Ponferradina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Elche

Pablo Valcarce 72'

F. Russo 45+1'

Nino 42'

6/15/2020

Segunda División · Round 33Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ponferradina41%

×Draw28%

Elche31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.07

Ponferradina

1.29

Elche

1.07

Ponferradina creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 86 away

1.29

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.29

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Ponferradina

1.07

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

69%

Ponferradina or Elche

72%

Draw or Elche

59%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

19%

Elche wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

72%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

37%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

14%

Elche 1+ goals

66%

Elche 2+ goals

29%

Elche 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

57%

Elche (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 84 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.29 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Elche attack 1.07 + Ponferradina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ponferradina scores more

41%

level

28%

Elche scores more

31%

Ponferradina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

F. Russo

Ponferradina · D

7.7

Match Events

33'

J. Navarro

35'

O. Mfulu

40'

M. Sanchez

42'

Nino↳ Juan Cruz

45+1'

F. Russo↳ Son

59'

Pablo Valcarce← Javi Navarro

63'

66'

67'

71'

72'

73'

77'

Claudio Medina← Dani Escriche

77'

Josán Fernández← Manuel Sánchez

82'

Omar Ramos← Yuri

83'

Pablo Larrea← Nacho Gil

85'

87'

87'

88'

88'

Josema Sánchez← Iván Sánchez

90+4'

Rene

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonferradinaElche

Overview

35%Possession65%

12Total Shots3

4Corners2

21Fouls29

Shots

12Total Shots3

5On Target1

7Off Target2

0Blocked0

9Inside Box2

3Outside Box1

Passing

35%Possession65%

205Total Passes378

125Accurate Passes294

61%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls29

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3