Elche 1–0 Ponferradina: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ponferradina

Y. Qasmi 4'

9/28/2019

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Elche48%

×Draw28%

Ponferradina24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchPonferradina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.85

Elche

1.35

Ponferradina

0.85

Elche creates 59% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

0.76

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Ponferradina

0.94

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Ponferradina

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Ponferradina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elche or draw

76%

Elche or Ponferradina

72%

Draw or Ponferradina

52%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

23%

Ponferradina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

74%

Elche 2+ goals

39%

Elche 3+ goals

15%

Ponferradina 1+ goals

57%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

21%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

67%

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Ponferradina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ponferradina attack 0.94 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Elche scores more

48%

level

28%

Ponferradina scores more

24%

Elche at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Edgar Badía

Elche · G

7.8

Match Events

4'

Y. Qasmi↳ Josán Fernández

24'

Pablo Trigueros← F. Noguera

28'

42'

44'

45'

47'

Pablo Trigueros Estrada

56'

Yuri← Pablo Valcarce

57'

Gonzalo Villar

61'

Manuel Sánchez← Gonzalo Villar

66'

Fidel← Nino

77'

Fidel

77'

Kaxe← Asier Benito

82'

Claudio Medina← Y. Qasmi

90'

Franco Russo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElchePonferradina

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots8

9Corners0

28Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target4

5Off Target3

4Blocked1

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

336Total Passes394

228Accurate Passes280

68%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

28Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1