Ponferradina 5–2 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Ponferradina

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Amorebieta

Álvaro Ramón 90+4'

Álex Costa 78', 10'

Yeray Cabanzón 71'

Álvaro Bustos 61'

Pablo Hervías 37'

Álex Carbonell 32'

11/24/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ponferradina58%

×Draw24%

Amorebieta18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.81

Ponferradina

1.68

Amorebieta

0.81

Ponferradina creates 107% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.51

creates per match

0.74

0.89

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.51

Amorebieta

0.74

allows per match

Ponferradina

0.89

Amorebieta

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

82%

Ponferradina or Amorebieta

76%

Draw or Amorebieta

42%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

32%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

81%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

50%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

24%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

56%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

19%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

76%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Amorebieta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.68

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ponferradina scores more

58%

level

24%

Amorebieta scores more

18%

Ponferradina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

26'

32'

35'

37'

45+4'

46'

Álvaro Ramón← Javi Lancho

46'

Germán Nóvoa← M. Doué

46'

Yeray Cabanzón← Andoni López

53'

Jon Aurtenetxe← Sergio Camacho

55'

J. Amelibia

59'

N. Ben Hamed← A. Coulibaly

61'

Álvaro Bustos

70'

Borja Valle← K. Sibille

71'

Yeray Cabanzón

75'

P. Hervias

78'

Álex Costa

79'

Ernesto Gómez← Álvaro Bustos

82'

Álvaro Marín← Jordi Calavera

82'

Kaxe← Álvaro Yuste

82'

T. Nakai← Daniel Selma

90+4'

Álvaro Ramón

Ponferradina

Amorebieta

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bustos

Mula

⚽2

Costa

Manager: Javi Rey

46'▲Álvaro Ramón←▼Javi Lancho

46'▲Germán Nóvoa←▼M. Doué

46'▲Yeray Cabanzón←▼Andoni López

70'▲Borja Valle←▼K. Sibille

79'▲Ernesto Gómez←▼Álvaro Bustos

Ponferradina substitutes

RamónNóvoaCabanzónValleGómezJiménezFernándezCortésJorrínJürgensBarredo

Manager: Natxo González

53'▲Jon Aurtenetxe←▼Sergio Camacho

59'▲N. Ben Hamed←▼A. Coulibaly

82'▲Álvaro Marín←▼Jordi Calavera

82'▲Kaxe←▼Álvaro Yuste

82'▲T. Nakai←▼Daniel Selma

Amorebieta substitutes

AurtenetxeHamedMarínKaxeNakaiGonzálezBravoMarino

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Ponferradina 5–2 Amorebieta

Ponferradina beat Amorebieta 5-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2024.

Goals: Álex Costa (10', 78'), Álex Carbonell (32'), Pablo Hervías (37'), Álvaro Bustos (61'), Yeray Cabanzón (71'), Álvaro Ramón (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio El Toralín in Ponferrada.

Ponferradina vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Ponferradina 5–2 Amorebieta