Amorebieta 1–0 Ponferradina: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ponferradina

Iker Unzueta 90+3'

5/28/2022

Segunda División · Round 42Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Amorebieta44%

×Draw28%

Ponferradina28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchPonferradina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.98

Amorebieta

1.29

Ponferradina

0.98

Amorebieta creates 32% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 84 away

1.19

creates per match

0.94

1.02

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.19

Ponferradina

0.94

allows per match

Amorebieta

1.02

Ponferradina

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Ponferradina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

72%

Amorebieta or Ponferradina

72%

Draw or Ponferradina

56%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

20%

Ponferradina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

72%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

37%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

14%

Ponferradina 1+ goals

62%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

26%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

61%

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.19 + Ponferradina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ponferradina attack 0.94 + Amorebieta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Amorebieta scores more

44%

level

28%

Ponferradina scores more

28%

Amorebieta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Iker Seguín

Amorebieta · D

7.6

Match Events

46'

Juan Hernández← Ricard Pujol

46'

Miguel Baeza← P. Anton

56'

Kuki← José Naranjo

62'

Álvaro Peña← Mikel Álvaro

62'

Aitor Aldalur← Gaizka Larrazabal

67'

Alexandru Paşcanu

69'

Sergi Enrich← Yuri

71'

Lozano

73'

Iker Unzueta← Koldo Obieta

73'

Iker Bilbao← Javi Ros

74'

Ríos Reina← Dani Ojeda

83'

Oier Luengo← Aimar Sagasti

88'

Saúl Crespo

90+3'

Iker Unzueta↳ Iker Seguín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmorebietaPonferradina

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots13

5Corners3

14Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target1

7Off Target9

4Blocked3

12Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

310Total Passes511

214Accurate Passes412

69%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides3