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Ponferradina II vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Numancia II
Numancia II
12/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II41%
×Draw28%
Numancia II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.29
Numancia II
1.11

Ponferradina II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Numancia II
0.95

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Numancia II
1.58

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Numancia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
68%
Ponferradina II or Numancia II
72%
Draw or Numancia II
59%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
18%
Numancia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
72%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
37%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
14%
Numancia II 1+ goals
67%
Numancia II 2+ goals
30%
Numancia II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
56%
Numancia II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
41%
level
28%
Numancia II scores more
32%

Ponferradina II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ponferradina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina II vs Numancia II

Ponferradina II and Numancia II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.