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Numancia II vs Ponferradina II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Numancia II
Numancia II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 27Ciudad del Fútbol Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Numancia II49%
×Draw26%
Ponferradina II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia II
1.54
Ponferradina II
1.04

Numancia II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 32 away

creates per match

Numancia II
1.53
Ponferradina II
0.84

allows per match

Numancia II
1.25
Ponferradina II
1.56

finishing

Numancia II+0.00on par
Ponferradina II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia II ↓

Ponferradina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Numancia II or draw
74%
Numancia II or Ponferradina II
74%
Draw or Ponferradina II
51%

Winning margin

Numancia II wins by 2+
25%
Ponferradina II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Numancia II 1+ goals
79%
Numancia II 2+ goals
45%
Numancia II 3+ goals
20%
Ponferradina II 1+ goals
65%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
28%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Numancia II (draw refunded)
66%
Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Ponferradina II away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia II attack 1.53 + Ponferradina II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ponferradina II attack 0.84 + Numancia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Numancia II scores more
49%
level
26%
Ponferradina II scores more
26%

Numancia II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Numancia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia II vs Ponferradina II

Ponferradina II beat Numancia II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad del Fútbol Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 2 in Soria.