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Ponferradina II vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mirandés II
Mirandés II
11/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II36%
×Draw28%
Mirandés II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.17
Mirandés II
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Mirandés II
1.04

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Mirandés II
1.34

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Mirandés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
64%
Ponferradina II or Mirandés II
72%
Draw or Mirandés II
64%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
15%
Mirandés II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
69%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
33%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
11%
Mirandés II 1+ goals
69%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
32%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
50%
Mirandés II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
36%
level
28%
Mirandés II scores more
36%

Ponferradina II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ponferradina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina II vs Mirandés II

Mirandés II beat Ponferradina II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.