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Mirandés II vs Ponferradina II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
9/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mirandés II49%
×Draw27%
Ponferradina II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.45
Ponferradina II
0.92

Mirandés II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Ponferradina II
0.84

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Ponferradina II
1.56

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Ponferradina II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Ponferradina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
76%
Mirandés II or Ponferradina II
73%
Draw or Ponferradina II
51%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
25%
Ponferradina II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
77%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
42%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
18%
Ponferradina II 1+ goals
60%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
23%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
67%
Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Ponferradina II away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Ponferradina II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ponferradina II attack 0.84 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mirandés II scores more
49%
level
27%
Ponferradina II scores more
24%

Mirandés II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mirandés II 3 – 1 Ponferradina II

Mirandés II beat Ponferradina II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.