Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ponferradina II vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II45%
×Draw28%
Colegios Diocesanos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.29
Colegios Diocesanos
0.92

Ponferradina II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
73%
Ponferradina II or Colegios Diocesanos
72%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
55%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
21%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
72%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
37%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
14%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
60%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
23%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
63%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
45%
level
28%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
27%

Ponferradina II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ponferradina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Ponferradina II 1–0 Colegios Diocesanos

Ponferradina II beat Colegios Diocesanos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.