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Colegios Diocesanos vs Ponferradina II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
10/14/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Colegios Diocesanos38%
×Draw28%
Ponferradina II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colegios Diocesanos
1.25
Ponferradina II
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 32 away

creates per match

Colegios Diocesanos
0.94
Ponferradina II
0.84

allows per match

Colegios Diocesanos
1.47
Ponferradina II
1.56

finishing

Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par
Ponferradina II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colegios Diocesanos ↓

Ponferradina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colegios Diocesanos or draw
66%
Colegios Diocesanos or Ponferradina II
72%
Draw or Ponferradina II
62%

Winning margin

Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
17%
Ponferradina II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
71%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
36%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
13%
Ponferradina II 1+ goals
69%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
32%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
53%
Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colegios Diocesanos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

Ponferradina II away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.94 + Ponferradina II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ponferradina II attack 0.84 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Colegios Diocesanos scores more
38%
level
28%
Ponferradina II scores more
34%

Colegios Diocesanos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colegios Diocesanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Colegios Diocesanos 1–1 Ponferradina II

Colegios Diocesanos and Ponferradina II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Sancti Spiritu B in Ávila.