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Ponferradina II vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
2/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 19Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II31%
×Draw30%
Burgos Promesas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
0.97
Burgos Promesas
1.15

Burgos Promesas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 63 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Burgos Promesas
1.02

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Burgos Promesas
0.94

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
60%
Ponferradina II or Burgos Promesas
70%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
69%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
11%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
62%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
25%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
7%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
68%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
32%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
43%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
31%
level
30%
Burgos Promesas scores more
40%

Burgos Promesas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ponferradina II 0 – 0 Burgos Promesas

Ponferradina II and Burgos Promesas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.