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Burgos Promesas vs Ponferradina II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Burgos Promesas53%
×Draw26%
Ponferradina II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.50
Ponferradina II
0.83

Burgos Promesas creates 81% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
Ponferradina II
0.84

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
Ponferradina II
1.56

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
Ponferradina II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Ponferradina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
79%
Burgos Promesas or Ponferradina II
74%
Draw or Ponferradina II
47%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
27%
Ponferradina II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
78%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
44%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
19%
Ponferradina II 1+ goals
56%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
20%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
72%
Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Ponferradina II away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Ponferradina II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ponferradina II attack 0.84 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
53%
level
26%
Ponferradina II scores more
21%

Burgos Promesas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burgos Promesas 2 – 0 Ponferradina II

Burgos Promesas beat Ponferradina II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3 in Burgos.