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Pomorzanin Toruń vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
FT
0 – 0
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
11/14/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń26%
×Draw26%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.02
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.12
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
2.12

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
0.88
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.91

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw
52%
Pomorzanin Toruń or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
74%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
74%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
9%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
64%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
27%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
8%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
78%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
44%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
35%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 2.12 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
26%
level
26%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
48%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Pomorzanin Toruń 0–0 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Pomorzanin Toruń and Kotwica Kołobrzeg drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.