Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2–0 Pomorzanin Toruń

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

2 – 0

Pomorzanin Toruń

5/22/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg50%

×Draw25%

Pomorzanin Toruń26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchPomorzanin Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.10

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.63

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.10

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

1.79

creates per match

1.18

1.03

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.79

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.18

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.03

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

74%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Pomorzanin Toruń

75%

Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń

50%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

26%

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

80%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

48%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

22%

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

67%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

30%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

66%

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.79 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

50%

level

25%

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

26%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff