Pomorzanin Toruń 1–3 Jarota Jarocin: Result & Stats

Pomorzanin Toruń

FT

1 – 3

Jarota Jarocin

6/13/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń42%

×Draw26%

Jarota Jarocin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pomorzanin ToruńExpected goals in this matchJarota Jarocin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.42

Jarota Jarocin

1.21

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

1.12

creates per match

1.53

0.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.12

Jarota Jarocin

1.53

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń

0.88

Jarota Jarocin

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Jarota Jarocin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Jarota Jarocin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw

68%

Pomorzanin Toruń or Jarota Jarocin

74%

Draw or Jarota Jarocin

58%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

20%

Jarota Jarocin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

76%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

41%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

17%

Jarota Jarocin 1+ goals

70%

Jarota Jarocin 2+ goals

34%

Jarota Jarocin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

57%

Jarota Jarocin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Jarota Jarocin away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Jarota Jarocin defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jarota Jarocin attack 1.53 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

42%

level

26%

Jarota Jarocin scores more

32%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff