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Jarota Jarocin vs Pomorzanin Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Jarota Jarocin
Jarota Jarocin
FT
1 – 1
Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
9/5/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jarota Jarocin38%
×Draw25%
Pomorzanin Toruń37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jarota Jarocin
1.40
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jarota Jarocin
1.33
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.18

allows per match

Jarota Jarocin
1.59
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.47

finishing

Jarota Jarocin+0.00on par
Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jarota Jarocin ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jarota Jarocin or draw
63%
Jarota Jarocin or Pomorzanin Toruń
75%
Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń
62%

Winning margin

Jarota Jarocin wins by 2+
17%
Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jarota Jarocin 1+ goals
75%
Jarota Jarocin 2+ goals
41%
Jarota Jarocin 3+ goals
17%
Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
75%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
40%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jarota Jarocin (draw refunded)
50%
Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jarota Jarocin at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jarota Jarocin attack 1.33 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Jarota Jarocin defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jarota Jarocin scores more
38%
level
25%
Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
37%

Jarota Jarocin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jarota Jarocin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jarota Jarocin vs Pomorzanin Toruń

Jarota Jarocin and Pomorzanin Toruń drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jarocin.