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Pomorzanin Toruń vs Gwardia Koszalin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
FT
1 – 1
Gwardia Koszalin
Gwardia Koszalin
10/24/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń38%
×Draw28%
Gwardia Koszalin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.21
Gwardia Koszalin
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.12
Gwardia Koszalin
1.35

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
0.88
Gwardia Koszalin
1.29

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par
Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Gwardia Koszalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw
67%
Pomorzanin Toruń or Gwardia Koszalin
72%
Draw or Gwardia Koszalin
62%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
16%
Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
70%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
34%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
12%
Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals
67%
Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals
30%
Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
53%
Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Gwardia Koszalin away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.35 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
38%
level
28%
Gwardia Koszalin scores more
33%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Pomorzanin Toruń 1–1 Gwardia Koszalin

Pomorzanin Toruń and Gwardia Koszalin drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.