Gwardia Koszalin 0–0 Pomorzanin Toruń

Gwardia Koszalin

FT

0 – 0

Pomorzanin Toruń

4/24/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Stadion im. Stanisława Figasa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gwardia Koszalin33%

×Draw25%

Pomorzanin Toruń41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwardia KoszalinExpected goals in this matchPomorzanin Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.47

Gwardia Koszalin

1.29

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.47

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

1.18

1.76

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Gwardia Koszalin

1.12

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.18

allows per match

Gwardia Koszalin

1.76

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwardia Koszalin+0.00on par

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwardia Koszalin ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gwardia Koszalin or draw

59%

Gwardia Koszalin or Pomorzanin Toruń

75%

Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń

67%

Winning margin

Gwardia Koszalin wins by 2+

14%

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gwardia Koszalin 1+ goals

72%

Gwardia Koszalin 2+ goals

37%

Gwardia Koszalin 3+ goals

14%

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

77%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

43%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gwardia Koszalin (draw refunded)

45%

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwardia Koszalin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwardia Koszalin attack 1.12 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Gwardia Koszalin defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gwardia Koszalin scores more

33%

level

25%

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

41%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff