Pomorie 0–3 Montana: Result & Stats | Second League

Pomorie

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Montana

4/24/2020

Second League · Round 28Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pomorie18%

×Draw24%

Montana59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PomorieExpected goals in this matchMontana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.71

Pomorie

0.81

Montana

1.71

Montana creates 111% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 82 away

0.73

creates per match

1.21

2.20

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Pomorie

0.73

Montana

1.21

allows per match

Pomorie

2.20

Montana

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomorie+0.00on par

Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorie ↓

Montana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pomorie or draw

41%

Pomorie or Montana

76%

Draw or Montana

82%

Winning margin

Pomorie wins by 2+

5%

Montana wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Pomorie 1+ goals

56%

Pomorie 2+ goals

19%

Pomorie 3+ goals

5%

Montana 1+ goals

82%

Montana 2+ goals

51%

Montana 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Pomorie (draw refunded)

23%

Montana (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorie at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Montana away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorie attack 0.73 + Montana defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Montana attack 1.21 + Pomorie defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pomorie scores more

18%

level

24%

Montana scores more

59%

Montana at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff