Montana 1–0 Pomorie: Result & Stats | Second League

Montana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pomorie

I. Mihov 62'

4/6/2019

Second League · Round 23Stadion Ogosta (Montana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Montana68%

×Draw20%

Pomorie11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchPomorie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.62

Montana

1.93

Pomorie

0.62

Montana creates 211% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

1.52

creates per match

0.47

0.77

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Montana

1.52

Pomorie

0.47

allows per match

Montana

0.77

Pomorie

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montana+0.00on par

Pomorie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Pomorie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montana or draw

89%

Montana or Pomorie

80%

Draw or Pomorie

32%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

42%

Pomorie wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

85%

Montana 2+ goals

57%

Montana 3+ goals

30%

Pomorie 1+ goals

46%

Pomorie 2+ goals

13%

Pomorie 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

86%

Pomorie (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Pomorie away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.52 + Pomorie defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.93

Pomorie attack 0.47 + Montana defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Montana scores more

68%

level

20%

Pomorie scores more

11%

Montana at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Y. Yordanov← B. Damyanov

62'

I. Mihov

82'

M. Koev← Z. Iliev

85'

Z. Zhekov← B. Rasim

86'

R. Trifonov← N. Tsvetkov

87'

M. Antonov← A. Iliev

Montana

Pomorie

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Genov

46'▲Y. Yordanov←▼B. Damyanov

86'▲R. Trifonov←▼N. Tsvetkov

87'▲M. Antonov←▼A. Iliev

Montana substitutes

YordanovTrifonovAntonovStoychevOrlinovGavovMisyak

Manager: R. Boyanov

82'▲M. Koev←▼Z. Iliev

85'▲Z. Zhekov←▼B. Rasim

Pomorie substitutes

KoevZhekovHristovStoyandzhovTemenlievKizhevBozhinov