Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pomezia vs Angri Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Pomezia
Pomezia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Angri Calcio
Angri Calcio
11/6/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomezia35%
×Draw24%
Angri Calcio41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomezia
1.46
Angri Calcio
1.62

Angri Calcio creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pomezia
1.33
Angri Calcio
1.35

allows per match

Pomezia
1.89
Angri Calcio
1.59

finishing

Pomezia+0.00on par
Angri Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomezia ↓

Angri Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pomezia or draw
59%
Pomezia or Angri Calcio
76%
Draw or Angri Calcio
65%

Winning margin

Pomezia wins by 2+
16%
Angri Calcio wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pomezia 1+ goals
77%
Pomezia 2+ goals
43%
Pomezia 3+ goals
18%
Angri Calcio 1+ goals
80%
Angri Calcio 2+ goals
48%
Angri Calcio 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Pomezia (draw refunded)
45%
Angri Calcio (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomezia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

Angri Calcio away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomezia attack 1.33 + Angri Calcio defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Angri Calcio attack 1.35 + Pomezia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pomezia scores more
35%
level
24%
Angri Calcio scores more
41%

Angri Calcio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Angri Calcio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pomezia vs Angri Calcio

Angri Calcio beat Pomezia 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Pomezia.