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Angri Calcio vs Pomezia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Angri Calcio
Angri Calcio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pomezia
Pomezia
3/12/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 27Stadio Pasquale Novi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Angri Calcio35%
×Draw28%
Pomezia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angri Calcio
1.15
Pomezia
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Angri Calcio
0.94
Pomezia
0.94

allows per match

Angri Calcio
1.41
Pomezia
1.35

finishing

Angri Calcio+0.00on par
Pomezia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angri Calcio ↓

Pomezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Angri Calcio or draw
64%
Angri Calcio or Pomezia
72%
Draw or Pomezia
65%

Winning margin

Angri Calcio wins by 2+
15%
Pomezia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Angri Calcio 1+ goals
68%
Angri Calcio 2+ goals
32%
Angri Calcio 3+ goals
11%
Pomezia 1+ goals
69%
Pomezia 2+ goals
33%
Pomezia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Angri Calcio (draw refunded)
49%
Pomezia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angri Calcio at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Pomezia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angri Calcio attack 0.94 + Pomezia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Pomezia attack 0.94 + Angri Calcio defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Angri Calcio scores more
35%
level
28%
Pomezia scores more
36%

Pomezia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Pomezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angri Calcio vs Pomezia

Angri Calcio and Pomezia drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Pasquale Novi in Angri.