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Polonia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock — I Liga 2018

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
3/15/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 24Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Warszawa38%
×Draw26%
Wisla Plock36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.37
Wisla Plock
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.27
Wisla Plock
1.21

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.41
Wisla Plock
1.47

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Wisla Plock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
64%
Polonia Warszawa or Wisla Plock
74%
Draw or Wisla Plock
62%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
18%
Wisla Plock wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
75%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
40%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
16%
Wisla Plock 1+ goals
73%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
38%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
52%
Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
38%
level
26%
Wisla Plock scores more
36%

Polonia Warszawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Polonia Warszawa 2–2 Wisla Plock

Polonia Warszawa and Wisla Plock drew 2-2 in I Liga on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.