Polonia Warszawa 2–2 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Polonia Warszawa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Ł. Zjawiński 44' (pen), 10'

M. Cywiński 90+7' (pen)

L. Kreković 63'

3/9/2025

I Liga · Round 23Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Warszawa49%

×Draw24%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchKotwica Kołobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.17

Polonia Warszawa

1.67

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.17

Polonia Warszawa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.27

creates per match

0.94

1.41

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa

1.27

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.94

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa

1.41

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw

73%

Polonia Warszawa or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

76%

Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

51%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

26%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

81%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

50%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

23%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

69%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

33%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

65%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 0.94 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more

49%

level

24%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

27%

Polonia Warszawa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Ł. Zjawiński

44'

Ł. ZjawińskiPenalty

58'

M. Predenkiewicz← O. Wojciechowski

58'

Xabi Auzmendi← M. Młyński

63'

L. Kreković

70'

M. Machciński← V. Kostevych

72'

Xabi Auzmendi

78'

A. Trojnarski

82'

K. Krzepisz← M. Lasek

88'

L. Zjawinski

90+8'

F. Oliveira

90+7'

M. CywińskiPenalty

Polonia

Kotwica

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: M. Pawlak

58'▲M. Predenkiewicz←▼O. Wojciechowski

58'▲Xabi Auzmendi←▼M. Młyński

Polonia Warszawa substitutes

PredenkiewiczAuzmendiKapustaSandachŚpiewakKluskaKołodziejskiVasinCissé

Manager: P. Tworek

70'▲M. Machciński←▼V. Kostevych

82'▲K. Krzepisz←▼M. Lasek

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

MachcińskiKrzepiszObłoj