Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–2 Polonia Warszawa

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Polonia Warszawa

S. Murawski 90'

W. Fadecki 36'

P. Tomczyk 28'

4/22/2023

II Liga - East · Round 28Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg37%

×Draw27%

Polonia Warszawa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.27

Polonia Warszawa

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.76

0.79

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.41

Polonia Warszawa

1.76

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.79

Polonia Warszawa

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Polonia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

63%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Polonia Warszawa

73%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa

63%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

16%

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

72%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

36%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

14%

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals

72%

Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals

36%

Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

50%

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.76 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

37%

level

27%

Polonia Warszawa scores more

37%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

K. Bartos

28'

P. Tomczyk

36'

W. Fadecki

40'

M. Kluska← M. Michalski

46'

S. Murawski← D. Kostkowski

46'

J. Nojszewski← A. Bielka

48'

M. Kozajda

68'

M. Rakowski← J. Nojszewski

69'

Ł. Sierpina← Ł. Kosakiewicz

69'

G. Goncerz← A. Frączczak

75'

79'

83'

90+4'

90'

M. Fidziukiewicz← P. Tomczyk

90'

S. Murawski

Kotwica

Polonia

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Bartoszek

46'▲S. Murawski←▼D. Kostkowski

46'▲J. Nojszewski←▼A. Bielka

68'▲M. Rakowski←▼J. Nojszewski

69'▲Ł. Sierpina←▼Ł. Kosakiewicz

69'▲G. Goncerz←▼A. Frączczak

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

MurawskiNojszewskiRakowskiSierpinaGoncerz

Manager: R. Smalec

40'▲M. Kluska←▼M. Michalski

75'▲Ł. Piątek←▼M. Bajdur

90'▲M. Fidziukiewicz←▼P. Tomczyk

Polonia Warszawa substitutes

KluskaPiątekFidziukiewicz

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Polonia Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2-1 in II Liga - East on April 22, 2023.

Goals: P. Tomczyk (28'), W. Fadecki (36'), S. Murawski (90').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Polonia Warszawa — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Polonia Warszawa