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Polonia Warszawa vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
10/7/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 14Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Warszawa46%
×Draw25%
Garbarnia Kraków28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa
1.53
Garbarnia Kraków
1.14

Polonia Warszawa creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.59
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa
1.00
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa or draw
72%
Polonia Warszawa or Garbarnia Kraków
75%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
54%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
23%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
78%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
45%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
20%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
68%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
32%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
62%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.59 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.53

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Polonia Warszawa scores more
46%
level
25%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
28%

Polonia Warszawa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Polonia Warszawa and Garbarnia Kraków drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on October 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego in Warszawa.