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Garbarnia Kraków vs Polonia Warszawa — II Liga - East 2019

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
5/13/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 31Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków32%
×Draw24%
Polonia Warszawa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.35
Polonia Warszawa
1.59

Polonia Warszawa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.57
Polonia Warszawa
1.76

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
Polonia Warszawa
1.12

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Polonia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
57%
Garbarnia Kraków or Polonia Warszawa
76%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa
68%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
14%
Polonia Warszawa wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
74%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
39%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
15%
Polonia Warszawa 1+ goals
80%
Polonia Warszawa 2+ goals
47%
Polonia Warszawa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
43%
Polonia Warszawa (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Polonia Warszawa away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Polonia Warszawa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Polonia Warszawa attack 1.76 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
32%
level
24%
Polonia Warszawa scores more
43%

Polonia Warszawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Garbarnia Kraków 1–3 Polonia Warszawa

Polonia Warszawa beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-1 in II Liga - East on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.