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Polonia Warszawa U18 vs Lech Poznań U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Polonia Warszawa U18
Polonia Warszawa U18
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lech Poznań U18
Lech Poznań U18
12/4/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Polonia Warszawa U1846%
×Draw20%
Lech Poznań U1834%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa U18
2.20
Lech Poznań U18
1.89

Polonia Warszawa U18 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa U18
2.52
Lech Poznań U18
2.13

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa U18
1.65
Lech Poznań U18
1.87

finishing

Polonia Warszawa U18+0.00on par
Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa U18 ↓

Lech Poznań U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa U18 or draw
66%
Polonia Warszawa U18 or Lech Poznań U18
80%
Draw or Lech Poznań U18
54%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+
26%
Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa U18 1+ goals
89%
Polonia Warszawa U18 2+ goals
64%
Polonia Warszawa U18 3+ goals
37%
Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals
85%
Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals
56%
Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)
57%
Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa U18 at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Lech Poznań U18 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa U18 attack 2.52 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.13 + Polonia Warszawa U18 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Polonia Warszawa U18 scores more
46%
level
20%
Lech Poznań U18 scores more
34%

Polonia Warszawa U18 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa U18 vs Lech Poznań U18

Polonia Warszawa U18 beat Lech Poznań U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on December 4, 2021.