Lech Poznań U18 1–2 Polonia Warszawa U18

Lech Poznań U18

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Polonia Warszawa U18

8/20/2022

Central Youth League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lech Poznań U1847%

×Draw22%

Polonia Warszawa U1831%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań U18Expected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.55

Lech Poznań U18

1.94

Polonia Warszawa U18

1.55

Lech Poznań U18 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

2.14

creates per match

1.95

1.16

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Lech Poznań U18

2.14

Polonia Warszawa U18

1.95

allows per match

Lech Poznań U18

1.16

Polonia Warszawa U18

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań U18+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań U18 ↓

Polonia Warszawa U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lech Poznań U18 or draw

69%

Lech Poznań U18 or Polonia Warszawa U18

78%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa U18

53%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań U18 wins by 2+

26%

Polonia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lech Poznań U18 1+ goals

86%

Lech Poznań U18 2+ goals

58%

Lech Poznań U18 3+ goals

30%

Polonia Warszawa U18 1+ goals

79%

Polonia Warszawa U18 2+ goals

46%

Polonia Warszawa U18 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań U18 (draw refunded)

60%

Polonia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Polonia Warszawa U18 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań U18 attack 2.14 + Polonia Warszawa U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.94

Polonia Warszawa U18 attack 1.95 + Lech Poznań U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lech Poznań U18 scores more

47%

level

22%

Polonia Warszawa U18 scores more

31%

Lech Poznań U18 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lech Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff