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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Polonia Nysa — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
0 – 1
Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
5/5/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica35%
×Draw22%
Polonia Nysa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.65
Polonia Nysa
1.85

Polonia Nysa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Polonia Nysa
1.20

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Polonia Nysa
2.18

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Polonia Nysa+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Polonia Nysa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
57%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Polonia Nysa
78%
Draw or Polonia Nysa
65%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
17%
Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
81%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
49%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
23%
Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
84%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
55%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
45%
Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Polonia Nysa away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Polonia Nysa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.65

Polonia Nysa attack 1.20 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
35%
level
22%
Polonia Nysa scores more
43%

Polonia Nysa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polonia Nysa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Polonia Nysa

Polonia Nysa beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.