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Polonia Nysa vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
FT
4 – 2
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion KS Polonia Nysa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia Nysa56%
×Draw20%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Nysa
2.24
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.43

Polonia Nysa creates 57% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Polonia Nysa
1.37
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Polonia Nysa
1.58
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Polonia Nysa+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Nysa ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Polonia Nysa or draw
76%
Polonia Nysa or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
80%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
44%

Winning margin

Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
34%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
89%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
65%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
38%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
76%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
42%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
70%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Nysa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Nysa attack 1.37 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.24

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Polonia Nysa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Polonia Nysa scores more
56%
level
20%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
24%

Polonia Nysa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Polonia Nysa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Nysa vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Polonia Nysa beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 4-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion KS Polonia Nysa in Nysa.