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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Polonia Bytom — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
1 – 3
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
9/5/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica19%
×Draw20%
Polonia Bytom62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.13
Polonia Bytom
2.21

Polonia Bytom creates 96% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Polonia Bytom
1.92

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Polonia Bytom
1.15

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
38%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Polonia Bytom
80%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
81%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
7%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
68%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
31%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
11%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
89%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
65%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
23%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Polonia Bytom attack 1.92 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
19%
level
20%
Polonia Bytom scores more
62%

Polonia Bytom at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Polonia Bytom

Polonia Bytom beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.