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Polonia Bytom vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
5 – 3
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
4/17/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion Szombierek Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia Bytom70%
×Draw16%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.72
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.12

Polonia Bytom creates 143% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.33
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
0.96
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
87%
Polonia Bytom or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
84%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
30%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
49%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
93%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
75%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
50%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
67%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
31%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
84%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.33 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.72

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Polonia Bytom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
70%
level
16%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
13%

Polonia Bytom at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Bytom vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Polonia Bytom beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 5-3 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Szombierek Bytom in Bytom.