Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1–0 Miedź Legnica II

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

FT

1 – 0

Miedź Legnica II

10/31/2020

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica29%

×Draw22%

Miedź Legnica II48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia-Stal ŚwidnicaExpected goals in this matchMiedź Legnica II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.88

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.43

Miedź Legnica II

1.88

Miedź Legnica II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 86 away

1.11

creates per match

1.26

2.50

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.11

Miedź Legnica II

1.26

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

2.50

Miedź Legnica II

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Miedź Legnica II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw

52%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Miedź Legnica II

78%

Draw or Miedź Legnica II

71%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

13%

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

76%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

42%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

17%

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals

85%

Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals

56%

Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

38%

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Miedź Legnica II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Miedź Legnica II attack 1.26 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

29%

level

22%

Miedź Legnica II scores more

48%

Miedź Legnica II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff