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Miedź Legnica II vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
FT
3 – 1
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
5/29/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Miedź Legnica II61%
×Draw18%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedź Legnica II
2.56
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.45

Miedź Legnica II creates 77% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 18 away

creates per match

Miedź Legnica II
2.02
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Miedź Legnica II
1.62
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica II ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica II or draw
79%
Miedź Legnica II or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
82%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
39%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
40%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
92%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
72%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
46%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
77%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
42%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
75%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica II attack 2.02 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.56

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Miedź Legnica II scores more
61%
level
18%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
21%

Miedź Legnica II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miedź Legnica II vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Miedź Legnica II beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi in Legnica.