Polonia-Stal Świdnica 0–4 Lechia Zielona Góra

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

FT

0 – 4

Lechia Zielona Góra

4/24/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica24%

×Draw22%

Lechia Zielona Góra54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia-Stal ŚwidnicaExpected goals in this matchLechia Zielona Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

2.00

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.26

Lechia Zielona Góra

2.00

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 103 away

1.11

creates per match

1.50

2.50

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.11

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.50

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

2.50

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw

46%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Lechia Zielona Góra

78%

Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra

76%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

10%

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

72%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

36%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

13%

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

86%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

59%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

31%

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.26

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

24%

level

22%

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

54%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff