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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
4 – 2
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
9/12/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra62%
×Draw19%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
2.37
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.23

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 93% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 18 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
81%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
81%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
38%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
40%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
91%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
68%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
42%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
71%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
35%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
77%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.37

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
62%
level
19%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
19%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Lechia Zielona Góra 4–2 Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 4-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.