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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
0 – 0
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
5/26/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica30%
×Draw22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.48
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.94

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
52%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
78%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
70%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
13%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
77%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
43%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
19%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
86%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
58%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
38%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
30%
level
22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
48%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia-Stal Świdnica 0–0 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Polonia-Stal Świdnica and Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.