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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
5 – 0
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
10/24/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry58%
×Draw20%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
2.30
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.36

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 69% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
78%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
80%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
42%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
36%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
90%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
67%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
40%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
74%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
39%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
73%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.30

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
58%
level
20%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
22%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 5-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.