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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
0 – 3
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
11/14/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica25%
×Draw23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.24
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.86

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 102 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.22

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
48%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Goczałkowice Zdrój
77%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
75%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
10%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
71%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
35%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
13%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
84%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
55%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
33%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
25%
level
23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
52%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia-Stal Świdnica 0–3 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.